NFL
NFL Week Three Gambling Picks
Talk about a wild ride of emotions in week two of the NFL. We saw the early games turn in mostly blowouts mixed with too many injuries, only to have three of the four afternoon contests decided by a total of seven points, including the Vikings lose on another easy missed field goal at the end (Blair Walsh vibes anyone?). Tom Brady and the Bucs continued their hot start as defending champs, while Lamar Jackson showed some of his 2019 MVP magic in a comeback win at home against the vaunted Kansas City Mahomes Chiefs. Oh and Aaron Rodgers is back, in case you were worried. But as always, we can’t settle on the past for too long, so click here for a full week two recap of the NFL season.
Before we get to the 2021 NFL week three gambling picks, here’s a quick note on where I’m getting the odds for each matchup, as well as how you could earn some free gambling money to put on some of the games. For this week, all odds and bets are pulled directly from Jazz Sportsbook. Be sure to head over to register and use, new promo code “TEAM” for a 125% Free Play up to $1,000. Additionally, each new member can earn a $10 Free Bet with a minimum deposit of $25.
Let’s quickly recap an improved week two of picks…
Week Two Team Bets Recap (3 Wins, 4 Losses)
Football Team -4 vs. Giants X
Cardinals -4 vs. Vikings X
Cardinals/Vikings over 51 points √
Rams -4 at Colts X
Patriots -1.5 / Broncos -2 / Cardinals + 0.5; 4-pt teaser √
Chiefs -3.5 at Ravens X
Bills -3 at Dolphins √
Week Two Player Prop Bets (3 Wins, 3 Losses)
Antonio Gibson (WFT) over 69.5 rushing yards vs. New York (N): 69 X
Damien Harris (NE) over 73.5 rushing yards at New York (A): 62 X
Justin Herbert (LAC) over 303.5 passing yards vs. Dallas: 338 √
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) over 43.5 receiving yards vs. New Orleans: 65 √
Nyheim Hines (IND) over 3.5 receptions vs. Los Angeles (N) 1 X
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) over 59.5 rushing yards at Los Angeles (A) 71 √
Some nice wins, but we were eight points away in the Washington, Arizona and Los Angeles games from being 6-1. That’s gambling for you. It’s a small consolation at least that we are trending in the right direction and coming incredibly close with most of these picks. Just like football, you have to keep moving the chains. After two weeks, we sit at 4-9 with team/parlay picks, and 7-4 in player prop selections, or 11-13 overall.
And now week three picks…
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Player Prop Bets
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) over 47.5 receiving yards X
Kyler Murray (AZ) over 284.5 passing yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) over 60.5 receiving yards
Josh Allen (BUF) over 35.5 pass attempts
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 312.5 passing yards
Justin Herbert (LAC) over 303.5 passing yards
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Panthers -1.5 / Cardinals -1.5; 6-point teaser
Two favorites of this weekly series so far, we’re putting the Panthers and Cardinals together in week three for what hopes to be a safe teaser. Carolina travels to Houston for a Thursday night matchup against the lowly Texans, who are without Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Carolina just feasted on Jameis Winston and the Saints offense last Sunday, so a matchup against rookie Davis Mills (3rd round pick out of Stanford this past April) is an exciting prospect for Panthers fans. Just to be safe, we’ll combine them with our next team in a teaser because we know how wildly unpredictable those Thursday night games have shown to be over the years.
As for part two of this teaser, we’re once again picking the Cardinals, this week on the road at the Jaguars. Arizona’s defense struggled to contain Dalvin Cook and the rest of the Vikings in week two, but I’m confident in their ability to tackle what has been a subpar offense in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence has had some bright and dull moments in his first two games, but his offensive line has provided little-to-no help, and the Jags’ defense is below-average at best. I see no reason Murray and the rest of his crew shouldn’t run wild in Florida this week. Panthers 24, Texans 10 | Cardinals 35, Jaguars 20
Saints at Patriots (-3)
The new-look Patriots stayed the same against the lowly Jets last week, trouncing them 25-6 on the road. New England’s defense has looked back to standard so far this season (albeit against two average offenses), and a matchup at home against a Saints team that cobbled together 128 total yards of offense against Carolina is appetizing. Throw in the emergence of Damien Harris as not only the lead back but also one of the tougher runners in this league (see below), and we can expect Bill Belichick to have another outstanding defensive game plan for his opponent.
The Saints are coming off their lowest-scoring game (just seven points) since September of 2019 at the Rams (a 27-9 defeat), and Alvin Kamara had eight carries for five yards on the ground. In short- it was not a good week in NOLA land. I don’t like New Orleans’ chances much more against a stout Patriots’ defense preys on quarterback mistakes (see – Jameis Winston) and is always able to take a superstar out of the game (see – Kamara). Expect another brutal loss on the road for the Saints. Patriots 23, Saints 13
Damien Harris REFUSED to be stopped 😳
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/e3tWkkiqjc— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 19, 2021
Colts at Titans (-5)
With Carson Wentz’s status for week three already in doubt thanks to two sprained ankles, the Titans look like the better player here at home. Tennessee is coming off of an impressive comeback win on the road against the 12th Man in Seattle, and Derrick Henry is back to his usual wrecking ball self. He only seems to get better throughout the game, punishing defense for all four quarters. Julio Jones also looked to be inspired after some comments by Mike Vrabel during the week, and would have had a touchdown if not for an incredibly close review that saw his heel down outside the end zone. Tennessee has rebounded from its’ awful week one, and should be a big favorite at home against the weakened (and 0-2) Colts. Titans 27, Colts 13
Colts / Titans under 49 points
Sticking with the Tennessee/Indy game, the under of 49 points also is a favorable number. Tennessee can put up some points in a hurry, but the Colts offense has been average to start the year, and will figure to be worse if Wentz misses the game. Additionally, if the Titans build a two or three touchdown lead in the first half, they’ll be more than happy to let Henry take the clock down in the final 30 minutes with lots of run plays and long drives. Titans 27, Colts 13
Bears +13 / Broncos -5 ; 5.5-point teaser
The Broncos have been very solid to start the gambling year, specifically on the defensive end. They’ve given up just 26 points over two weeks (to two below-average offenses, but still), and have been great at getting to the passer and making plays in the secondary, Rookie Patrick Surtain II grabbed his first-career interception last Sunday and looks every bit the elite talent that Denver was hoping when they selected him ninth overall in the 2021 draft.
On offense, Teddy Bridgewater is doing what he always does, and that’s moving the chains and not turning the ball over. He has almost 600 passing yards, four touchdowns and no picks through both games. I like the Broncos’ chances at home against a porous Jets team, but just to be safe against a double-digit line, we’ll toss them in this teaser with another seemingly simple pick.
The Bears surprised many in week two with a tight 20-17 win at home against the Bengals. Andy Dalton left halfway through the game and rookie Justin Fields came in to submit a shaky-at-best performance (6-11 passing, 60 yards, and an INT), while the defense picked off Joe Burrow three times in the win. I don’t think Cleveland will have a hard time beating Chicago, but with injuries to OBJ, Landry, along with a suspect defense, I like the Bears to hang around inside of two touchdowns in this teaser. Browns 27, Bears 20 | Broncos 27, Jets 9
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Player Futures Gambling Props Update
Amari Cooper under 1,150 receiving yards: Currently at 163 receiving yards
Josh Allen over 4,500 passing yards: Currently at 449 passing yards
Josh Allen over 41.5 pass/rush TD’s: Currently at 3 total touchdowns
Josh Allen to win MVP: Currently out of the MVP race after two weeks
Davante Adams over 1300 receiving yards: Currently at 177 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey over 15.5 total TD’s: Currently at 1 total touchdown
Antonio Gibson over 1,025 rushing yards: Currently at 159 yards
Team Future Win Totals Update
Bills over 11 wins: Currently 1-1
Bills 12-17 wins: Currently 1-1
Bucs over 11.5 wins: Currently 2-0
Texans/Lions parlay under 4.5 wins each: Currently 1-1 and 0-2
Lions under 5 wins: Currently 0-2
Giants under 7 wins: Currently 0-2
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