NFL
MVP Ladder (Through Week 6)
1) Kyler Murray (6-0 record, 1,741 passing yards, 17 total TDs, 4 INT)
2) Lamar Jackson (5-1 record, 1,686 passing yards, 11 total TDs, 5 INT)
3) Dak Prescott (5-1 record, 1,813 passing yards, 16 TD, 4 INT)
4) Josh Allen (4-2 record, 1,723 passing yards, 17 total TDs, 3 INT)
5) Justin Herbert (4-2 record, 1,771 passing yards, 14 TD, 4 INT)
Before we get to the 2021 NFL week seven gambling picks, here’s a quick note on where I’m getting the odds for each matchup, as well as how you could earn some free gambling money to put on some of the games. For this week, all odds and bets are pulled directly from Jazz Sportsbook. Be sure to head over to register and use, new promo code “TEAM” for a 125% Free Play up to $1,000. Additionally, each new member can earn a $10 Free Bet with a minimum deposit of $25. Also, be sure to head over to Play PickUp, where you can vote on my prop and make picks on the hottest headlines in sports. Sign up and play HERE
Week Six Team Prop Bets (3 Wins, 2 Losses)
Buccaneers -1, Chiefs -0.5; 6-point teaser √
Cowboys ML / Rams ML parlay √
Cardinals / Browns over 49.5 points √
Bills (-6) at Titans X
Packers +1.5, Steelers +1.5, Bills -0; 6-point teaser X
Week Six Player Prop Bets (4 Wins, 2 Losses)
Antonio Brown (TB) over 4.5 receptions (-148) √
Lamar Jackson (BAL) over 234.5 passing yards (-113) X
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 2.5 passing touchdowns (-158) X
Cooper Kupp (LAR) anytime touchdown scorer (-150) √
Najee Harris (PIT) over 18.5 rushing attempts (-114) √
Diontae Johnson (PIT) over 64.5 receiving yards (-114) √
After six full weeks, we sit at 14-18 with team/parlay picks, and 20-16 in player prop selections, or 34-34 overall. However, in the last two weeks we are 13-9 overall, so the train is moving up the mountain slowly.
Now let’s move to the week seven picks…
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Player Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers (GB) over 264.5 passing yards (-110)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 2.5 passing touchdowns (-136)
Damien Harris (NE) over 66.5 rushing yards (-110)
Tom Brady (TB) over 36.5 pass attempts (-130)
Robert Woods (LAR) anytime touchdown scorer (-105)
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) over 49.5 receiving yards (-113)
Broncos (+3) at the Browns (-110)
With Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt all ruled out for Thursday’s home contest against the Broncos, Denver becomes the easy favorite to win the game. I’m honestly not sure how this line wasn’t in the Broncos’ favor starting out this week with Chubb and Hunt ruled out before Tuesday evening, but we’ll gladly take it. Even with some injuries of their own, Denver has some talented receivers in Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Tim Patrick that can torch a below-average Cleveland secondary. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater usually does well when playing on the road as an underdog, and I expect more of the same this week.
It’ll most likely be one of the weakest Thursday night games of the season due to all of the missing players, so expect a low-scoring affair as well. But we will cover the over/under for that game just a little farther down this post. For now, just worry about picking Denver’s spread, or even the moneyline (+118) and enjoying what should be a fairly comfortable victory Thursday evening. Broncos 20, Browns 10
Eagles (+3.5) at the Raiders (-114)
The Eagles haven’t been very good this season, but they’ve competed hard in their last two contests, a 3-point win over Carolina in week five and a tough 28-22 loss to the Bucs last Thursday. In short, they’re moving in the right direction. I think they have a favorable matchup this week at the Raiders, a team who in the past three weeks has losses to the Chargers and Bears, fired their head coach for racially/homophobic sensitive emails, and then beat an average Broncos squad on Sunday. Very little about Las Vegas inspires confidence. Derek Carr is one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the league, and Darren Waller’s (one of the best tight ends in the NFL) production has suffered because of it. The running game is almost non-existent at 79.8 yards a game, good for fourth-worst in the league, and the defense has not shown the ability to consistently stop even average offenses.
Philadelphia has one of the worst defenses in the league, but Jalen Hurts and the offense can usually put up enough points to compete. Hurts’ accuracy issues have long been noted since his Alabama days, but with Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and more at his disposal, he shouldn’t have too much of a hard time scoring this week. Look for the Eagles to pull away late in the fourth quarter. Eagles 31, Raiders 27
Chiefs ML / Patriots ML parlay (-122)
Our two-team moneyline parlay hit last week, so why not go back to the well in week seven with the Chiefs and Patriots. The Chiefs not only won, but covered against Washington last Sunday, thanks to a strong performance from Patrick Mahomes (397 yards, two touchdowns), and two scores from backup running back Darrel Williams. Kansas City has had many ups and downs this year, but their ability to put up points is still elite-level, as they have arguably the best offense in the league alongside Dallas and Tampa Bay. The Titans defense has been less than stellar this season, allowing the ninth-most points per game of any team. I think Derrick Henry keeps this close for a bit, but even he can’t do it all against the Chiefs.
As for the Patriots, they dueled the Cowboys down to overtime before a CeeDee Lamb touchdown sealed their fourth loss this year. However, they’ve shown a strong ability to play good teams close this season, and thankfully the Jets are… not that. New England typically owned New York during the Tom Brady era, and I don’t expect much to change this season. Damien Harris is improving each week and Mac Jones is incredibly efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over a lot. Not to mention the Patriots defense is one of the better groups in the league, and should feast on a poor Jets roster. This game is probably over by the end of the third quarter. Chiefs 34, Titans 26 | Patriots 27, Jets 17
Browns/Broncos under 48.5 points, Rams/Lions under 56.5 points; 6-point teaser (-134)
One of two teasers this week, we’re going with some unders in games that feature a total of 3/4 below-average offenses. First is the Denver-Cleveland game that we covered above with a Denver +3 pick. The under for points in this game is also a good option, as neither team is healthy and puts up a lot of points consistently. I’d be shocked if this game reached 40 points combined, with it being a Thursday night affair, and Cleveland missing their two-best running backs. Just to be safe, this teaser will push that total to 48.5 points, a number that I just can’t see the two teams getting remotely close to.
As for the Rams-Lions game, it’s a homecoming for Matthew Stafford, who played his first 12 years in Detroit. Stafford has been excellent for the Rams this year (1,838 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs), and Los Angeles is coming off a 38-11 thrashing of the Giants. The offense is humming with Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson Jr., and Tyler Higbee all enjoying excellent years with Stafford. As for the Lions, they’re 0-6 and have only scored more than 20 points once this year (a 41-33 loss to the 49ers in week one). Jared Goff has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league as expected, and the Detroit defense has given up the sixth-most points per game (28.7) of any team in the NFL. It shouldn’t be a close game, as evidence by the Rams being favored by almost 16 points on most sports betting sites. Teasing this over/under up to 56.5 should be pretty safe, giving us a cushion in case Detroit grabs some garbage-time points. Broncos 20, Browns 10 | Rams 30, Lions 17
Patriots -1, Packers -3.5, Seahawks +11.5; 6-point teaser (+140)
Our last pick of the week is also our second teaser, and this one includes the Patriots, Packers and Seahawks. We already discussed the Patriots above and took their moneyline against the lowly Jets, so no need to repeat anything down here. The Packers are on a roll, having won five straight games by a combined score of 141-98. Aaron Rodgers (1,463 yards, 14 total TDs, 3 INTs) is just outside the MVP conversation currently, but that’s only because we have some guys off to hot start that won’t last. I expect the 3x league MVP to firmly entrench himself in the discussion in the next 2-3 weeks. Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are two of the most explosive teammates a guy like Rodgers could ask for, and the Green Bay defense is giving up just 315 yards a game (fifth-fewest in the NFL). The Football Team is a mess, with injuries to Antonio Gibson and Curtis Samuel, and a defense that has turned out to be one of the worst in the league. I think the Packers cruise in this one.
Finally, the Monday night contest between the Saints and Seahawks, two teams with non-inspiring rosters currently, that have been extremely up-and-down this year. The Saints’ defense is legitimate, and has helped them way more than the offense has this season. Jameis Winston and the shaky receiving core have been less-than-stellar, and a huge part of why New Orleans hasn’t been able to string together back-to-back wins in 2021. With that said, Seattle is without Russell Wilson and probably Chris Carson this week again, so their offense is nothing to write home about. Add in their defense, that has been the worst in the league, and you have a recipe for the Saints escaping the 12th Man with win no. 4. However, I think the Seahawks can easily cover +11.5 in this teaser. Patriots 27, Jets 17 | Packers 31, Football Team 20 | Saints 23, Seahawks 16
Player Futures Gambling Props Update
Amari Cooper under 1,150 receiving yards: Currently at 373 receiving yards
Josh Allen over 4,500 passing yards: Currently at 1,723 passing yards
Josh Allen over 41.5 pass/rush TD’s: Currently at 17 total touchdowns
Josh Allen to win MVP: Currently around 4th in my MVP race after four weeks
Davante Adams over 1300 receiving yards: Currently at 668 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey over 15.5 total TD’s: Currently at 1 total touchdown (injured)
Antonio Gibson over 1,025 rushing yards: Currently at 357 rushing yards
Team Future Win Totals Update
Bills over 11 wins: Currently 4-2
Bills 12-17 wins: Currently 4-2
Bucs over 11.5 wins: Currently 5-1
Texans/Lions parlay under 4.5 wins each: Currently 1-5 and 0-6
Lions under 5 wins: Currently 0-6
Giants under 7 wins: Currently 1-5
