NFL
This post has been edited following the ACL injuries to Gus Edwards and Marcus Peters of the Ravens on Thursday afternoon. The Ravens -4.5 pick has been replaced by the Vikings/Panthers parlay.
By: Jordan Vitkauskas
The 2021 NFL season is upon us, which means the start of a new NFL gambling season! While COVID-19 is still hanging around, this season promises to run a little more smoothly this year. As always, week one is loaded with every team on the schedule, along with some juicy matchups. By now, everyone should have drafted their fantasy teams and have rosters set, as the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday evening.
Every week, I’ll be giving 4-6 bets/parlays/teasers for the NFL schedule, as well as a detailed explanation as to why I’m choosing that bet. Football is easily the most gambled sport in the U.S. (soccer is the most worldwide), so it should come as no surprise that we had to give you a few winners each week. Results from each slate of games will be posted in the following week’s article, and my future bets will be updated weekly to reflect where they currently stand. I’ll also give my predictions for the games themselves at the end of the breakdown. All odds and bets are pulled directly from FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s get to it with the NFL week one gambling picks.
Check out the full schedule for week one in the NFL here.
Player Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes over 14.5 rushing yards vs. the Browns
Kareem Hunt over 16.5 receiving yards vs. the Chiefs
Marquez Callaway over 47.5 receiving yards vs. the Packers
Lamar Jackson over 70.5 rushing yards vs. the Raiders
Damien Harris over 69.5 rushing yards vs. the Dolphins
____
Eagles / Falcons over 48.5 points
One of the first games on the Sunday slate, Philly/Atlanta figures to be somewhat of a shootout with neither team boasting a strong defense. Jalen Hurts is the guy (for now) in Philadelphia alongside Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert . As long as Hurts can stay healthy and make accurate throws, the Eagles should be able to put up points.
Ditto for Atlanta that sees Matt Ryan enter his 14th season, having missed just three games in his career. Ryan has Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Mike Davis as his primary weapons, along with a new head coach in Arthur Smith, who guided a potent Titans offense for the past few seasons. Both teams can get in the endzone but will have a hard time stopping the opposition, a theme that will last the entire year. Expect both teams to flirt with the 30-point mark. Falcons 35, Eagles 28
Vikings -3 at Bengals (-110) / Panthers -4.5 vs. Jets (-102)
In light of the Ravens injuries to Gus Edwards and Marcus Peters, I’ve zagged from my Ravens -4.5 pick and instead created the first parlay of the year. As a general rule, parlays are for suckers and rarely hit, but I think this is one of the safer combos we could make this week. In the Vikings game, Minnesota has a potent offense with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen as weapons while Kirk Cousins just has to manage games as he normally does. Their defense is a point of concern, as injuries and lost pieces saw them in the bottom half of the league last season. Ditto for the Bengals, who also have a great offense behind Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins. However, the Cincy defense is porous at best, and their offensive line leaves a lot to be desired. I think this is a close game for three quarters before Minnesota puts it away late.
In the second game of this parlay, the Panthers get their golden boy Christian McCaffrey back to a lineup that also features D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson. Former Jets’ draftee Sam Darnold has a new change of scenery but expect him to play above his usual level as he faces his old team. Speaking of the Jets, they enter the year with more low expectations, even with rookie gunslinger Zach Wilson and former Titan Corey Davis in the lineup. There’s still questions about the offensive line and the secondary is filled with younger, inexperienced players. Carolina isn’t a dominant team, but they should be in control for most of this contest. Vikings 30, Bengals 22 | Panthers 28, Jets 17
____
____
Broncos (-3) at Giants (-120)
If the Aaron Rodgers to Denver trade had actually happened, this line would be closer to ten points than zero. However, Denver still has a talented and hungry defense, led by former All-Pro Von Miller, and Justin Simmons. On offense, journeyman Teddy Bridgewater takes over for Drew Lock at the quarterback spot and sees Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant and K.J. Hamler alongside him as weapons.
As for the Giants, they enter the 2021 season with a terrible offensive line, a questionable quarterback in Daniel Jones, and an average defense at best. In short – it’s going to be a long year in the Big Apple. My only concern is a West team flying East and dealing with the hindrances that it presents. However, since 2013, West teams are 58-40-4 (59.2%) against spreads while playing on the East coast, per the Action Network. I think the Broncos come out motivated and win this game by halftime. Broncos 31, Giants 13
Buccaneers -3.5 / Bills -2.5; 4-point teaser (+110)
Ahh, our first teaser of the season and it features two Super Bowl contenders (always a good sign). The defending champ Bucs get to host a Dallas squad with a porous defense and COVID issues on the offensive line, that’s supposed to be a strength. Meanwhile Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back, along with a full offseason of Tom Brady working with perhaps the best receiving core in the NFL. I’m fairly confident in them covering the original -7.5 spread, but just to be safe in case Dallas shows up, we’ll make it part one of the teaser.
____
____
As for part two, Buffalo is everyone’s sexy Super Bowl pick and for good reason. Their defense is solid, and Josh Allen is a huge MVP candidate after a breakout year in 2020. He has Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley to throw to, along with a smart coach in Sean McDermott. On the Pittsburgh side, Big Ben is another year older and looked like it in last years’ playoff loss at home to the Browns. Offensive line is a question for the Steelers as well, and their normally elite defense is not quite at the level it was last season with the departure of Bud Dupree and contract issues with T.J. Watt. Should Watt miss this game, as he aims for a lucrative extension, Buffalo could have a field day at home.
Basically, we’re just needing Tampa Bay and Buffalo to play their B+ games in week one in order for this to hit. Barring an injury to either quarterback or some fluke, this is one of my favorite bets for this week. Bucs 41, Cowboys 21 | Bills 30, Steelers 17
Buccaneers -2.5 / 49ers -2.5 / Rams -2.5; 5-point teaser (+180)
What’s better than one teaser? A second and even better one! This is a three team grouping so the risk is a little higher of one team laying an egg. However, the matchups for all three are excellent and this might be my favorite bet of week one. We already covered the Bucs at home against Dallas, so we’ll skip right to our NFC West teams.
First is the 49ers, who after an injury year from hell, are finally healthy and ready to challenge for a playoff spot. Jimmy G will be the starter (for now) at quarterback, and George Kittle is back and looks ready to have a top-3 tight end fantasy season. San Fran boasted a top-10 defense last year and should only be better this year, especially going against the lowly Lions. Detroit did a Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff swap in the offseason and is likely to be one of the five-worst teams in the league. Their line is suspect, and defense won’t be much better than last year when they gave up the most yards in the NFL. This game could get ugly fast.
Finally, the Rams are my super bowl pick out of the NFC, so it’s no surprise I am picking them to win in week one. Their defense is arguably one of the top-3 in the NFL, and they added a gunner in Stafford, who is a massive upgrade over Goff. No longer will head coach Sean McVay have to carefully craft drives that minimized the risk of Goff turning the ball over. Similarly, Stafford will no longer feel like he has to score 35+ points a week and be perfect in order for his team to win. He has two excellent receivers in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, and the defense will make it so they just need to get to 20-22 points each week.
As for the Bears, Justin Fields will take over the top spot at quarterback sometime in week 4-7, but for now Andy Dalton will lead an okay offense that has Allen Robinson II and David Montgomery. Chicago’s defense is tough, but McVay will have a ton of plays and schemes planned to slow their pass rush down.
I’ll be shocked if any of these three don’t cover the teaser of -2.5. Even if all three have off days, a field goal is more than doable. Bucs 41, Cowboys 21 |49ers 28, Lions 10 | Rams 24, Bears 13
____
____
Packers (-3.5) at Saints (-110)
Are you still with me? Okay good we’re almost done. Now we turn to one of the best to ever do it in Aaron Rodgers and his packers. This is almost certainly his last season in Green Bay, so they might as well start with a win. Rodgers still has Davante Adams and Aaron Jones to hit whenever he chooses, and their defense should be good enough to flirt with the top ten. The offensive line isn’t stellar, with David Bakhtiari out for at least the first half of the season as he rehabs a torn ACL suffered last New Year’s Eve, but Rodgers has a way of avoiding big hits in the pocket.
For the Saints, the Drew Brees era is officially over after 15 seasons in NOLA and a Super Bowl win in 2009. The Jameis Winston era has begun (at least for now) and Mr. Lasik himself inherits Alvin Kamara, who should touch the ball early and often each week. With All-Pro Michael Thomas out for 5-9 weeks after ankle surgery, the depth at receiver is thin, but Marquez Callaway has shined in preseason and could be a stud sleeper this year. Defensively, New Orleans is a top-10 group led by Marshon Lattimore and Cameron Jordan. I expect Rodgers and co. to struggle at times to move the ball against the Saints, but the experience and talent on offense should lead to a win (and a cover). Packers 24, Saints 17
____
____
That’ll do it for the 2021 NFL week one gambling picks. Below is the season-long player and team futures bets, which will be updated weekly to reflect the progress of them.
Player Futures Gambling Props
Amari Cooper under 1,150 receiving yards (-112): Dak’s injury/history raises concern here. If he misses more than 3-4 games, Cooper could find himself receiving passes from Cooper Rush, and that doesn’t inspire confidence.
Josh Allen over 4,500 passing yards (-112): He had 4,544 last year, and has another year with Diggs, Beasley and more. Buffalo’s rushing attack isn’t stellar so expect Allen to sling it all year long.
Josh Allen over 41.5 pass/rush TD’s (-126): Allen had 45 last season, and figures to get to 50 with 17 games on the slate. Buffalo has mediocre running backs and Allen’s legs always give him opportunities around the goal line.
Josh Allen to win MVP (+1300): I know I know, another Josh Allen pick, but he’s just too primed for a huge year not to sprinkle a little on him. As long as Buffalo is a top-2 seed in the AFC and wins more than 12 games, Allen just needs to perform 3% better than last year to have a shot at the award.
Davante Adams over 1300 receiving yards (-112): Has had 1300+ in 2 of last 3 seasons and is Rodgers’ only big target at wide receiver.
Christian McCaffrey over 15.5 total TD’s (-112): As long as he’s healthy, CMC is the most dangerous player in the game. He’s the core of the Panthers’ offense and should get to 18-20 total TD’s this year.
Antonio Gibson over 1,025 rushing yards (-112): The second-year back for the Football Team is primed for a breakout season as the full-time starter. Gibson played only 14 games (with 10 starts) and from week seven on, averaged over 75 yards in games he played in except for one week where he left with an injury. Throw in a consistent 18-23 touches a game on a much better offense and Gibson should hit this mark around week 13.
Team Future Win Totals
Bills over 11 wins (-120): Perhaps the easiest one here. Bills won 13 games last year and will be out for blood in a 17-game season. They’ll want the top seed so they can host KC in the AFC title game, so expect them to play hard each week.
Bills 12-17 wins (+100): Even better odds for the Bills here if you go this route. Only a Josh Allen severe injury could ruin this bet.
Bucs over 11.5 wins (-150): Another easy one. The Bucs have basically their entire starters back and another year under Bruce Arians’ system. They’ll be a top-2 seed fairly easily, and their division is shaky at best right now.
Texans/Lions parlay under 4.5 wins each (+250): This parlay seems solid, as both teams lost their starting quarterbacks in the offseason. Houston may not win more than 1-2 games, while the Lions will be miserable in the NFC North with Goff.
Giants under 7 wins (+110): Not sure how this is at +110, but I’m hard-pressed to find seven wins for the Giants this year even if they can stay healthy, which is a highly unlikely. Along with their usual division opponents, New York plays the AFC West and NFC South this year, along with the Rams, Dolphins, and Bears. That’s a brutal slate of games against some really good defenses (WFT, LAR, TB, CHI, DEN, MIA), and some explosive offensives (KC, TB again, LAC, DAL twice) for a team that has not been good on either side of the ball in a few years. I don’t think the Giants get more than five wins.
Lions under 5 wins (-120): It’s the same scenario for the Lions as was with the Giants. Apart from their division, Detroit plays the AFC North and NFC West, and the Broncos, Eagles, and Falcons. That’s several top-tier defenses (PIT, DEN, BAL, SF, LAR, CHI twice, GB twice), and more high-powered offenses (CLE, BAL, SEA, AZ, GB twice, MIN twice) for arguably the worst roster in the NFL. I’ll be impressed if Detroit snags more than three victories from this season.
____
All stats and schedules are from ESPN.com unless stated otherwise.
All gambling odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook unless noted otherwise
