2021 NFL Week Four Gambling Picks

Week three is a wrap in the National Football League, and we are starting to turn things around with our team picks. The Patriots laid the worst egg at home against the Saints, but the Cardinals, Panthers, and Broncos continue to be solid for us. Before we get to the 2021 NFL week four gambling picks, here’s a quick note on where I’m getting the odds for each matchup, as well as how you could earn some free gambling money to put on some of the games. For this week, all odds and bets are pulled directly from Jazz Sportsbook. Be sure to head over to register and use, new promo code “TEAM” for a 125% Free Play up to $1,000. Additionally, each new member can earn a $10 Free Bet with a minimum deposit of $25.

Let’s quickly recap week three’s picks…

Week Three Team Bets Recap (3 Wins, 2 Losses)

Panthers -1.5; Cardinals -1.5; 6-point teaser √

Patriots (-3) vs. Saints

Titans (-5) vs. Colts √

Colts/Titans under 49 points √

Bears +13.5 / Broncos -5.5; 5-point teaser X

Week Three Player Prop Bets (2 Wins, 4 Losses)

Christian McCaffrey (CAR) over 47.5 receiving yards X (injured)

Kyler Murray (AZ) over 284.5 passing yards √

JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) over 60.5 receiving yards X (injured)

Josh Allen (BUF) over 35.5 pass attempts √

Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 312.5 passing yards X

Justin Herbert (LAC) over 303.5 passing yards X

Brutal that neither Mahomes nor Herbert could hit their passing yards prop, and JuJu/McCaffrey got hurt, thus eliminating any chance they had to hit theirs.  Also, we now know that Matt Nagy can’t be trusted the rest of the season. After three weeks, we sit at 7-11 with team/parlay picks, and 9-8 in player prop selections, or 16-19 overall.

And now week four picks…

Player Prop Bets

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) over 68.5 receiving yards

Nick Chubb (CLE) over 78.5 rushing yards

Miles Sanders (PHI) over 12.5 rushing attempts

Terry McLaurin (WSH) over 75.5 receiving yards

Russell Wilson (SEA) over 264.5 passing yards

Tom Brady (TB) over 2.5 passing touchdowns

Tom Brady (TB) over 39.5 passing attempts

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Chiefs over 31.5 points

This might be my favorite bet of the week. There’s a ton of factors that point towards Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs exceeding this number, so let’s run through them quickly. First, you have Kansas City coming off a tough loss at home to the Chargers, where Mahomes played one of his shakier games in recent memory, throwing two interceptions (including a bafflingly bad one in the final two minutes). You’d be wise to believe he is going to bounce back with a huge performance against a poor Eagles’ defense. Speaking of that defense, Philadelphia just gave up 41 points to a similarly high-powered Dallas offense, and it would have been closer to 50 if not for some Cowboys’ miscues. Philly can’t stop the run or pass right now, which is not the momentum you want going into a matchup with one of the 10-best quarterbacks of all time.

Next up is the Chiefs’ offense itself. While they have not been 100% in sync like we’re accustomed to, Kansas City has scored 33, 35, and 24 points (would have been easily over 30 if not for four turnovers) in the first three weeks, respectively. It’s scary to think that even when they aren’t’ clicking perfectly, the Chiefs are still almost guaranteed to reach the 30-point mark. You combine that with the issues on the Eagles’ defense and we have the makings of an explosive game for Kansas City. Finally, you have Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia for just the second time since leaving the place where he coached for 14 seasons, made five conference title games, and one Super Bowl in 2004. Reid’s teams are 2-0 overall against the Eagles since he left, and his guys will no doubt be fired up to win for him (especially after he went to the hospital as a precaution after last week’s contest). Chiefs 42, Eagles 24

Lions +9 / Chiefs -1.5; 6-point teaser

We’ll start off week four with another teaser, this time going with Detroit and Kansas City on bounce-back weeks. For the Lions, they are coming off of a heartbreaker loss to the Ravens, on the magical leg of Justin Tucker’s 66-yard bounce-off-the-crossbar-and-in field goal as time expired. Detroit actually played Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense as well as anyone has this year, holding them to just 19 points and 387 yards of total offense. Now, they get to go against most likely Justin Fields and the Bears group, who tallied just six points and 42 total yards of offense on Sunday in Cleveland. Add that to Jared Goff, who’s been surprisingly competent so far (completing 70% of his passes for 801 yards and five touchdowns), and the fact that Detroit is due for a win, and I like the Lions to not just cover, but win this week against their division rival.

In Philadelphia, as we already covered, the Chiefs will be on a mission to keep Andy Reid perfect against his former employer as they avenge their loss to the Chargers at home. Expect this contest to look just like the Cowboys-Eagles game from Monday night, with Kansas City jumping out to an early lead and never looking back. I’d put the over/under on the crowd booing the Eagles at about 12 minutes of game time. But just to be safe on both of these games, we’ll toss them in a teaser (since the Chiefs are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games), which now gives us two very favorable numbers. Lions 23, Bears 17 | Chiefs 42, Eagles 24

Jaguars/Bengals over 46.5 points

A battle of two teams that can score on offense, while having very little defensive presence is what we have between the Jaguars and Bengals in week four. For winless Jacksonville, all three of its’ games have seen a combined 46 or more points, and their defense isn’t getting better anytime soon. The Bengals have only seen one of their three games go over that mark, but they did go up against two tougher defenses in Pittsburgh/Chicago, so some slack can be cut. Joe Burrow and the rest of that offense are more than capable of getting 27-30 points each week, which means we just need the Jags to get close to 20 points for the over to hit.

Even though it is a Thursday night game, I think the Bengals will be in cruise control most of the game, meaning Trevor Lawrence will have to continually air it out (Jacksonville has a weak running game anyway) to try and keep it within a reasonable range. With any luck, the over will hit late in the third quarter and we can all relax for the final 15 minutes. Bengals 34, Jaguars 21

Saints -2.5 / Packers -2 / Titans -1; 5-point teaser

Our second teaser of the week, this one is a three-teamer featuring very favorable matchups. Starting it off is the Saints, who have a great matchup against the Giants. New Orleans is coming off a dominant start-to-finish win in New England, and its’ defense should have very little problems stopping a New York offense that has scored more than 14 points in two of three weeks. This one should be over before it begins, and I’d put them over on 2.5 turnovers for Daniel Jones.

In-game two, we have the Packers at home against the struggling Steelers. Aaron Rodgers is back in a groove and Davante Adams remains one of the three best receivers in the league. Aaron Jones has been electric rushing and receiving out of the backfield, and the defense has rebounded from a poor week one showing to force four turnovers combined in the past two weeks. With the Steelers reeling behind two weeks of poor play on both sides of the ball, I think Green Bay jumps out to an early lead and never looks back.

Finally, we have the Titans, who have rebounded after a terrible week one loss at home, to win two straight tough battles at Seattle, and against Indy. Derrick Henry is a wrecking ball and the lowly Jets scored a whopping zero points at Denver last week. This may be the biggest blowout of the week. I won’t waste your time writing more about this game. Especially with Tennessee just needing to win by less than a field goal in this teaser, you’re not winning if you don’t take the Titans this week. Saints 23, Giants 13 | Packers 26, Steelers 16 | Titans 28, Jets 10 

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Player Futures Gambling Props Update

Amari Cooper under 1,150 receiving yards: Currently at 189 receiving yards

Josh Allen over 4,500 passing yards: Currently at 807 passing yards

Josh Allen over 41.5 pass/rush TD’s: Currently at 8 total touchdowns

Josh Allen to win MVP: Currently in the MVP race after three weeks

Davante Adams over 1300 receiving yards: Currently at 309 receiving yards

Christian McCaffrey over 15.5 total TD’s: Currently at 1 total touchdown

Antonio Gibson over 1,025 rushing yards: Currently at 190 rushing yards

Team Future Win Totals Update

Bills over 11 wins: Currently 2-1

Bills 12-17 wins: Currently 2-1

Bucs over 11.5 wins: Currently 2-0

Texans/Lions parlay under 4.5 wins each: Currently 1-2 and 0-3

Lions under 5 wins: Currently 0-3

Giants under 7 wins: Currently 0-3