NFL
We are four weeks done with the NFL season and finally starting to see the standings take shape. The Cardinals are the last undefeated team in the league (+5000 odds before the season), while the AFC North and AFC West teams are a combined 21-11. Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers are the MVP candidates (in order) after four weeks, having all lead their team to a 3-1 record or better.
Before we get to the 2021 NFL week five gambling picks, here’s a quick note on where I’m getting the odds for each matchup, as well as how you could earn some free gambling money to put on some of the games. For this week, all odds and bets are pulled directly from Jazz Sportsbook. Be sure to head over to register and use, new promo code “TEAM” for a 125% Free Play up to $1,000. Additionally, each new member can earn a $10 Free Bet with a minimum deposit of $25.
Let’s quickly recap week four’s picks…
Week Four Team Bets (1 Win, 3 Losses)
Chiefs over 31.5 points √
Lions +9 / Chiefs -1.5; 6-point teaser X
Jaguars/Bengals over 46.5 points X
Saints -2.5 / Packers -2 / Titans -1; 5-point teaser X
Week Four Player Prop Bets (4 Wins, 3 Losses)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) over 68.5 receiving yards √
Nick Chubb (CLE) over 78.5 rushing yards √
Miles Sanders (PHI) over 12.5 rushing attempts X
Terry McLaurin (WSH) over 75.5 receiving yards √
Russell Wilson (SEA) over 264.5 passing yards X
Tom Brady (TB) over 2.5 passing touchdowns X
Tom Brady (TB) over 39.5 passing attempts √
After four weeks, we sit at 8-14 with team/parlay picks, and 13-11 in player prop selections, or 21-25 overall.
And now week five picks…
Player Prop Bets
Russell Wilson (SEA) to throw an interception (+124)
Derrick Henry (TEN) over 111.5 rushing yards (-114)
Zach Wilson (NYJ) over 33.5 passing attempts (-120)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) anytime touchdown scorer (-130)
Robby Anderson (CAR) over 47.5 receiving yards (-114)
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) under 56.5 receiving yards (-114)
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Rams / Seahawks under 54.5 points
Our first pick of the week is the Thursday night division battle between Seattle and Los Angeles. The Rams suffered their first loss of the season against the Cardinals but should have an easier time against a hit-or-miss Seahawks squad that recently held on for a 28-21 win against an injured 49ers’ team. Seattle has only been in one game this year that has gone over 54 points, while it’s happened each of the past two weeks for Los Angeles (albeit against two of the best offenses in the league in TB/AZ).
While both offenses have quick-strike, long-play potential, having a short week to prepare for a game always impacts and somewhat limits the play-calling. Additionally, I think the Rams defense will be out to prove something after giving up 37 points and a season-high 121 rushing yards against the Cardinals last Sunday. I expect a close divisional contest, with Los Angeles coming out on top late, thanks to Cooper Kupp and Matt Stafford. Rams 24, Seahawks 20
Packers (-3.5) at Bengals
This one is pretty simple. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are rolling, so why pick against them? Three straight wins, with 27 or more points scored in each victory, and just more overall talent really favors Green Bay heading into this matchup. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have started off the year strong, but their offense has had some lapses and inconsistency, along with an injury now to Joe Mixon. The biggest thing going for Cincinnati is that they are having Rodgers comes to them, and not the other way around. Dating back to November of the the 2019 season five out Green Bay’s last six regular season losses have come on the road. However, I still trust the G.O.A.T to get it done this week, as the Packers have too much momentum at this point in the year. Expect another 250+ yards in the air and 3 touchdowns for Rodgers as he and his team move to 4-1. Packers 31, Bengals 25
Broncos at Steelers (-1.5)
The Steelers have rarely been a popular pick for anyone this season, as their 1-3 record has not inspired a ton of confidence. Big Ben Roethlisberger has not looked good, and the normally standout defense has dealt with injuries and inconsistent play. Head coach Mike Tomlin has never finished a season under .500 during his time in Pittsburgh, but this season may break that streak. However, a home matchup against the also-injured Broncos provides us with a chance to pick the Steelers.
Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of last week’s loss to the Ravens with a concussion (with no flag on the play nonetheless), and is questionable to play this Sunday. The Denver receiving core is banged up, and their run game isn’t good enough to carry the team against this Pittsburgh defense. The Broncos should have an incredibly hard time moving the ball downfield in this matchup, and Najee Harris and Co. are able to do just enough to earn their second win of the season. Steelers 20, Broncos 13
Chargers +7 / Ravens -1; 6-point teaser
Our teasers were incredibly unlucky last week, but we have a rock-solid one for week five. First is the Chargers at home against the struggling Browns’ offense. Los Angeles is coming off a dominating Monday night win against the Raiders, as Herbert is second in the NFL with 113 completions at a 68.9% rate. He’s in a perfect rhythm with Austin Eckler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams, while the defense has allowed just the seventh-fewest points through four weeks. As for the Browns, they’re also 3-1 to begin the year, but the offense has been stagnant lately, as Baker Mayfield has the seventh-fewest passing yards in of any quarterback in the league. The Cleveland rushing attack is as dominant as expected however, as they are the only squad with 700 or more rushing yards in the NFL. Their defense has been near-elite as well, but I just think Herbert is too locked in and can’t be stopped currently.
As for the Ravens, they were able to secure a dominant win in Denver this past week, and now face another weak quarterback in Carson Wentz in the friendly confines of M&T Bank Stadium. Lamar Jackson is on a roll, throwing for 603 yards in his last two games, while that Baltimore defense has overcome the loss of Marcus Peters to allow just 24 points in those two contests. The Indianapolis defense is stout and will make Jackson work for his yards and points, but I just can’t see a world where Wentz and Jonathan Taylor keep up with Jackson, Hollywood Brown and Co. Pencil in win number four for Baltimore. Chargers 27, Browns 17 | Ravens 24, Colts 13
Dolphins at Bucs (-4.5), Steelers/Broncos under 45.5 points; 6-point teaser
Why not finish up the picks this week with a second teaser? With this one we like the Bucs back at home versus the Dolphins, after an ugly, rainy win in New England last week. Tom Brady played below average in his homecoming with the Patriots, however heavy rain and a good defensive game plan by the Patriots assisted in that. Now they get to come home to Tampa Bay and host the 1-3 Dolphins, who have given up at least 27 points in each of their last three games, all loses. It’s hard to fathom a world where Brady is held without a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, and I really expect head coach Bruce Arians to dial up some plays to give Brady the chance to throw for 3-4 scores. This one should be over by the middle of the third quarter.
As for the Steelers game, we’re circling back to add the total for this game in another teaser. The regular over/under is 39.5 currently, which while low, is not terrible unrealistic as Pittsburgh and Denver scored a combined 24 points last week. Just to be safe, we’ll boost that up to 45.5 points, meaning both teams would realistically have to get into the 20’s to approach that number; something I am almost certain won’t happen. The Steelers and Broncos defenses are top-10, and I’d guess there will be under 550 yards of total offense in this game, leading to points few and far between. Bucs 34, Dolphins 17 | Steelers 20, Broncos 13
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Player Futures Gambling Props Update
Amari Cooper under 1,150 receiving yards: Currently at 258 receiving yards
Josh Allen over 4,500 passing yards: Currently at 1,055 passing yards
Josh Allen over 41.5 pass/rush TD’s: Currently at 10 total touchdowns
Josh Allen to win MVP: Currently around 6th in the MVP race after four weeks
Davante Adams over 1300 receiving yards: Currently at 373 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey over 15.5 total TD’s: Currently at 1 total touchdown
Antonio Gibson over 1,025 rushing yards: Currently at 253 rushing yards
Team Future Win Totals Update
Bills over 11 wins: Currently 3-1
Bills 12-17 wins: Currently 3-1
Bucs over 11.5 wins: Currently 3-1
Texans/Lions parlay under 4.5 wins each: Currently 1-3 and 0-4
Lions under 5 wins: Currently 0-4
Giants under 7 wins: Currently 1-3
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